It can be seen that the military council army has been carrying out aerial bombardment in recent days on the city of Lashio in northern Shan State, which is occupied by the MNDAA. On September 18, the MNDAA announced that it would no longer attack the military council, and that it would not cooperate militarily or politically with the National Unity Government (NUG). Since the MNDAA side is no longer attacking Mandalay and Taungyin, it seems that they were in a position to launch an offensive at the beginning. But saying that I will stop attacking like that now is the same as saying that I will stop fighting the War Council. However, if he is attacked, the statement states that he will attack in self-defense.
The main point of MNDAA’s statement is that they will cease fire with Chinese intervention and build peace. It cannot be denied that China dominates the MNDAA. The MNDAA, which entered the battle with the 1027 operation, initially announced that it would fight with the three northern twin groups until the fall of Myanmar’s military dictator. However, China’s interventions at the moment cannot confirm whether it can influence all three northern twin groups, but it is obvious that, except for AA, it has quite an influence on MNDAA and TNLA.
Will China act as a peace broker for Myanmar’s problem that has been going on for more than 70 years? China is more likely to intervene than to make peace. The Chinese part will be put aside for a moment.
Therefore, MNDAA’s statement states that it is not related to NUG. I don’t think this is realistically possible. In northern Shan, there are many PDF soldiers under NUG. There are other PDF forces that are not affiliated with the NUG. Finally, there is even the BNRA unit of Captain Naga. There are still PDF troops as far as Lashio, which the MNDAA now controls. The military council telling the MNDAA not to join the NUG is like telling them not to join the PDF. Although the military council did not have the authority to say such things to MNDAA, it took advantage of the win with China. On this, the MNDAA side must play politics with awareness. Although the MNDAA issued an official letter, in reality, the NUG’s troops are still in PDF.
That is why the military council is ignoring the MNDAA’s statement that China will intervene and make peace and cease fire, and they are bombing Lashio every day. Coincidentally, after China sent a threatening message to the TNLA, although the fighting on the TNLA side has calmed down, the military council continues to bomb Nung Cho almost every day. In addition, TNLA was unable to capture the Military Council’s base in Taungkham, and it is learned that the Military Council is reinforcing its forces. So what I want to say here is that although the TNLA and MNDAA have called off the ceasefire, there is no ceasefire on the part of the military council. So China’s intervention and peace will no longer work. If the military council wants the form, MNDAA can do it. The military council considered that Lashio would fight back at least.
To sum it up, the Chinese side also wants Myanmar to regain power, and China is helping the military council to continue. However, even if the military council returns to power in Myanmar, there is no sign that China wants democracy. They only want a government that will exist under their influence. Even though the Myanmar military relies on China, if it doesn’t get the form it wants, even if the MNDAA does not fight the military council, the military council will fight back from the MNDAA. On the other hand, the military council has declared the northern (3) groups as terrorists, so no matter how much peace talks China does, the fighting will not stop.
